On the inside looking up...

Epilogue

Thu, 07 Jun 2007 13:17:26 GMT

Well, the official story of WWO is over for now. Time to peel back the curtain a little bit. If you don't like out-of-character stuff, go ahead and ignore this post. Otherwise, stick around for some behind the scenes extras.

This has been an eye opening experience for me. I like to write speculative fiction, and I do actually work for an oil company (name withheld for obvious reasons). I've also had some experience in writing collective fiction, so the chance to participate in something like WWO was something I couldn't pass up. The intensity of this, however, got to me. As gas prices rose in the real world, it became harder and harder to write in WWO. It was quite depressing, and it was almost impossible to come up with something that wasn't a major downer. That's why my posts became less frequent. I apologize for that and hope that what I did write was good for everyone.

Seeing everyone's different views was awesome. Some were more apocalyptic than others, but it all managed to work well together. I think we all captured the panic, the perseverance, and the general unbalance a sudden disruption of oil would cause. Do I think it will happen like we said it would? God I hope not. Hopefully, we'll wake up and realize that we can't afford to keep spending $4 a gallon on gas just to waste it. I believe we'll reach that point slowly, before a WWO occurs. Then again, who knows? That's the point of speculative fiction, really. To make us think about what could be, what might be, and what we would do about it.

So, what became of my WWO counterpart? Well, he and his family moved into a house near the office. They're doing fine, and he's even got into gardening and helping out at the market on weekends. His company spent a fair amount of money acquiring small alternative fuels firms and making collaborative deals with the rest of Big Oil to research a way to minimize the use of crude for transportation fuel. Some years down the road, a breakthrough happened and gasoline consumption was cut by 60% thanks to better engines and a new fuel source.

However, the Suburban Revolution was over. After 2007-2008, people weren't interested in living far away from where they work anymore. Cities that were once decaying were now revitalized thanks to renewed interest in tighter communities. Once an urban problem, crime moved out to the suburbs as the new city communities cracked down and drove out the bad elements. Safety and security was best found not behind the gates of some housing development 15 miles away, but in the closeness of neighbors and the ability to walk to the store and to work.

As for me, in this here and now, I'm a different person thanks to WWO. I'm much more aware of the fragile thread that supports the lifestyle I and others keep. I'm making changes, but there's a long way to go. But I AM changing, and that means that for me, WWO was a success.

Thank you to everyone who sent me words of encouragement. Thank you to the masters of WWO, for giving me the chance to participate and think. And thank you to the other Heroes, for without you this wouldn't have been as amazing a journey as it was.

The end of the beginning

Fri, 01 Jun 2007 03:57:24 GMT

Looks like it's the final days of WWO as a community site. I've been in some deep thought about all of this, and I've come to several conclusions:

1) We take ease of consuming for granted. We take and take, without thinking about where it comes from or what would happen if it was gone.

2) On that note, there's no appreciation for what we have. In the days before easy transportation, everything you got you earned through productive work of some form or fashion. Also, everything served a purpose. Nowadays, our lives have been filled with clutter. The shock helped reduce that, but there's a long way to go.

3) We need to rebuild communities. Don't just lock yourself up again. Get to know your neighbors. You might need them someday.

4) Learn how to take care of yourself. Basic disaster survival is a must. Once again, we got lazy and careless. It cost us a lot.

5) Understand the world as best you can. The oil shock shows us how interconnected money and politics and even religion really are. Make sure you elect leaders who understand that balance.

As I sit here at the end, I wonder how different things might have been had we planned ahead of time. Before the shock, I told some friends about the rumors. They brushed them off, said they could weather the prices. These same friends are now getting comfortable again.

The question to take out of this is: can we really change?

Good night and good luck everyone.

The New Order part 2

Thu, 24 May 2007 04:05:30 GMT

It's ironic we'd be talking about world power this week. I've been meaning to post this up, but hadn't had the chance.

A premonition from the past

It's kind of funny, really. All this time we'd convinced ourselves we were #1 in the world. Problem is that in order to be #1, you need to not rely on anyone else. We've been reliant and are still reliant on other countries to keep ourselves afloat. We owe them, they know it. Yet we just kept acting like it was us doing them the favor. All the while they tightened their grip on us like a boa constrictor.

If you didn't already know, the US is the only country that has private oil companies. All the rest are state run in some capacity or another. Oil was always political, always at the center of world relations. Iraq was about oil, but not in the way most people think. We didn't want the oil in the ground. We wanted another friend in the Middle East, one we had influence over. Well, that didn't turn out so well.

There's a huge slice of humble pie that America is going to have to choke down. Our days of acting like the big dog in the yard are done. How can we be a superpower if we can't even get our boats out of dock? We have to accept the fact that until we can get the alternative fuels going, we are merely a customer to the real Big Oil...the ones who have it. That ain't us, guys. It's Russia and the Middle East, our two biggest "enemies" as far as the history of the last 50 years.

We Are So Hosed.

Now can you see why my company wants to get out of oil and into other forms of energy?

Attempt at a local dinner

Mon, 21 May 2007 03:22:33 GMT

This is a direct response to chuckles' mission. Yeah, it took a couple weeks to respond but work has kept me really busy. I'm not entirely sure if this should count this as a success, since I missed on a couple of details. However, I'd like to submit my progress anyway.

Hello farmer's market. Here's hoping we can find some tasty vittles today!

Ooh..a bread stall. I got an idea. How about pizza? Yes, that's me with the grey shirt and bald head. Here's the first part of my questionable status on this mission. I couldn't take a picture with my sign. Advertising you're a part of WWO in this town (especially a high profile member like me) is not a good thing, so I had to lay low.

Wool? Not too tasty, but might come in useful down the road. Nifty that I could find that here.

Cheese...but it's yogurt cheese. That gets a veto from the missus as far as pizza goes. This could be more difficult than previously thought.

Ahh...veggies. Lots of greens, but again a failure in no tomatoes. Oh well, I'll get some salad greens anyway.

Some entertainment, which was nice. Yes those are cars. We still have fuel here, so some people drove. It's definitely a luxury, though. Most of us biked or walked.

By this point, I realized I couldn't find two very important ingredients. Cheese and tomatoes were nowhere to be found in this particular market. I would have to try somewhere else.

Here's questionable status time #2. I went to a local farm market (nice store, but all local stuff). While I was there I picked up some locally made sausage, cheese, and they even had tomatoes! However, they were VERY unhappy with me taking pictures in the store. These times have made people exceptionally paranoid, and they were afraid I was working for a competitor. Even after I explained what I was doing (leaving out the WWO part, simply saying it was a school project for my kid), they would not let me publish any pictures of the inside or outside of the store.

You can fail me now if you want, but here's the rest of the story. The family and I headed over to a friend's house, since our hotel doesn't have a stove. After I got there, it was time for inventory.

A little over a pound of cheese, tomatoes, crusts, salad greens, and Italian sausage. Add some olive oil for treating the crusts and dabbing on the greens and you've got a pretty good meal going.

(yes, I know it's a gas stove. Another green zone perk.)

I could post a recipe, but really it's simple. Grate cheese, brown sausage, cut tomatoes. Put together and bake. Put more tomatoes and cheese with greens for salad. Through the magic of TV, we get...

Pizza and salad. Yummy yummy. Hope that helps brighten your day, chuckles!

[OOG: Just want to add a few links here for those folks who helped me out on this adventure.

Cherry Street Farmers' Market in Tulsa

Lovera's Grocery in Krebs (sausage and cheese, exported to store).

Would've given props to that local farm store too, but the lack of pictures = lack of props. Next time, don't be so mean :P

Just two more links...
This one 'cause these guys were so cool to me out on Cherry Street: Sustainable Tulsa

And here's one for anyone else feeling brave enough to try this out: Local Harvest for finding markets, co-ops, etc. in your area]

Photos from a Green Zone

Fri, 18 May 2007 20:13:25 GMT

They say we should be documenting this crisis, and that we're short of photographs. I did a little driving around on the way back from work and snapped a few phone shots. It's not a lot, but it gives you an idea of the impact.

First off, I wanted to show you I got my banner in my car. Figured if I'm going to be driving, I should at least advertise.

Four months ago, these storefronts were home to local businesses. Once the crisis hit, prices went up and people quit shopping. Now they stand an empty testament to what once was.

Even local grocery stores haven't been immune. The big box chains have their shipping deals in place, but the local stores can't promise the volume of sales. They got left behind to die off.

These trucks have been here for a while. You'd think a large shipper wouldn't abandon his load, but when you're out of gas you're not going anywhere. I'm assuming they'll get out here eventually.

This house has been for sale for 3 months. Even a buyer's bonus can't get people to make that kind of investment. However, there is some brightness amongst all this.

Sorry for the poor quality. This household converted their entire yard (at least a couple thousand sqaure feet) into a garden growing food and spices. It's good to see some folks are trying to help ease the transition pain.

So, there's an update from a Green Zoner. It's not violent up here, but it's not all roses either. Instead of a supernova, it's more of a slow chilling. I know we're moving towards tomorrow, but seeing the old world fading is still a bit disturbing.

Some humor to brighten the day

Thu, 17 May 2007 17:16:30 GMT

Friend of mine sent these to me at work. It's so fitting. You just gotta laugh during times like these, you know?

Moving forward, despite the storm

Thu, 17 May 2007 03:56:05 GMT

It's been a month since I've posted...feels like forever. I haven't been able to spend any significant amount of time online, much less be able to get my thoughts together. Everything is a little tense here. Heck, it's tense everywhere. I know I promised better news, so here goes.

First off, know that I can't go into a ton of details. I still work for a corporation, so there's NDAs and all that jazz keeping me from really spilling the beans. What I can tell you is the same things that the media would be telling you if they weren't so focused on all the violence.

We're working on a solution.

Actually, it's not so much a solution as it is a path forward. By now it's apparent that oil is never again going to be produced in a quantity that meets the demand we currently have. A lot is going to have to change, and all the unrest proves that as a whole society isn't ready to make the same sacrifices many on the WWO boards have. So, as any good capitalist entity would, the company has seen a need that should be filled.

You should never fool yourselves into thinking the oil companies didn't foresee this day. They knew it would happen. They just weren't quite ready for it to happen so suddenly. The unpredictability of the human beast actually caught big oil off guard. Contingencies planned for 10 to 25 years from now are being accelerated.

We want to keep the world moving. We want the trucks on the road and the planes in the air. The oil companies gain NOTHING from transportation failure. Sure, there were record profits in a couple of the companies (not mine, but that's another story I can't tell). Those profits come from inflated sales of crude from their upstream portions, sales that are quickly declining due to lack of supply. The days of pulling money out of the ground are fast coming to an end. The oil might be there, but it's too expensive or dangerous to get.

So, what do companies that have spent over a century fueling the world do when the source starts to dry up?

What do you think? -play game show thinking music-

If you answered "find another source" you win the black gold star. That's what the companies have been doing for years. There's not a lot of the world left to explore, so most of the oil production increases have been from improved taps of existing sources. Otherwise, oil companies have just been trading wells and crude around.

We knew that couldn't last. We've been working on alternatives. That's right, the oil companies who are responsible for killing fuel cells and slamming ethanol have been working on alternative fuel sources for years. Any time one alternative or another has been "killed" it's because it was too expensive for us or the transportation industry to implement compared to oil. The politicians love to say they support them, but the hard economics show that the ideas are still dreams. However, those "dead" ideas have been pushed into R&D to find ways to make them cheaper and get them out on the highway. The first company to break the oil barrier would become the richest company in the world.

Do we have the cure yet? Nope. There are many things in the works. Some are ideas you're familiar with like bio-diesel, ethanol, and hydrogen. Some are more eccentric (and seriously off limits for me to talk about). The point is that the very entities people see fit to label as the bad guys are likely to be the ones who save the collective bacon of the world. It's a storm they've been waiting for, and I can almost promise you that when we come out the other side you'll realize the fuel companies (formerly oil companies) aren't the all powerful enemies the media wants you to think we are. We want this crisis over as much as you do, and we're busting our ----- to get there.

Oh, and the mass transit bill? Yeah, we had a lobbyist there. I can tell you why, too. It was another pipe dream. The amount of fuel and energy it would take to implement and maintain the infrastructure would have pushed our supplies even further into the red. More gas to the government = less gas to the people, and that's before the trains and buses would even be running. By the time it would have become solvent, the energy crisis will be over.

The light at the end of the tunnel, folks...this crisis will pass. There's a timeline to get it fixed. It's not tomorrow, but it's out there. We're not going to go extinct as long as we resist the urge to panic. Those who can are doing what they can to push us past this. We need to work together, not against each other.

The New Order

Sun, 13 May 2007 01:38:38 GMT

Couldn't think of a happy title, given the circumstances.

First off, sorry for the long silence. A lot has happened in the last two weeks The first and most important thing is that I had to relocate. The company decided that all employees who commute more than 10 miles a day need to maintain a "temporary residence" near the offices. Right now, they're footing the bill to keep me and my family in a hotel a couple blocks away from the complex. Most of the hotels in town have been converted into dormitories. The desk staff was reassigned to facility work (read laundry and maintenance), since they weren't needed for reservations anymore. The owners of the properties agreed to this, since otherwise they would have had to shut down completely.

Guess the good news is that I'm in a more rural area than I was before. There's lots of open land around this town that can be farmed. Since the company basically built this town a century ago, they have ties to the landowners around here. Slowly but surely, they're making contracts to keep the farms working and keep the workers fed. It's feudalism v2.0, and the company is king. Everyone here would be in deep trouble if the "secured" flow of fuel stopped.

Yes, you heard me right. The company, acting in its own interests, is renegotiating almost all of their downstream contracts. Using some fine print most people never read (I mean, who actually thought a "catastrophic long term oil shortage" would happen), they managed to reshape the flow of gasoline and diesel in such a way that it ends up helping them out. After the military gets their share, the next priority of fuel goes to the infrastructure to keep the company going. If you live in a town with a refinery, terminal, or port, there will be gas there for the people who work for the company and the folks who feed and supply them. What's left after that is what the rest of the world gets.

So now you know where part of the refined fuel has gone. The autocracy we all feared is real now. My company isn't the only ones. Every oil company, especially the foreign state run ones, have begun to enact their plans to keep operating. State first, company next, then sell the remainder for the highest prices. It is the law of business on a grand scale involving the lifeblood of our culture. As fuel becomes more scarce, those controlling it will grasp it tighter and tighter. Our government will try to balance things out, but they're just as enslaved to the supply as we are. Even if they took it over, it wouldn't change things. Keeping the remaining fuel flowing to the "right places" is the first rule of the New Order.

It was unpopular to work for big oil before, but now I know it will be dangerous. The media's done a great job blaming the companies for the failure of society as a whole to prepare. Now that society is getting more irate, and they're after the easiest scapegoats. That means I can't tell you exactly where I am now. Even if some of you enterprising folks do figure it out, remember two things. One, security around here is pretty tight. They know there are nuts out there, and the security detail is likely to taser or shoot and then ask who you are. Two, I'm your lifeline inside. Taking your frustration out on me or my coworkers will only cut away the information I can give you.

That disclaimer said, I wanted to let you guys know what was coming up. I wish I could do more to help, but I'm forced into the situation of watching out for me and my own. This is our best hope for the middle future, and I'm working on a plan for the longest term. The best advice I have is if you don't currently work for a "vital" industry or service located near some part of the oil infrastructure, the outages are going to keep getting worse until the fuel situation stabilizes.

Hopefully next week I can provide you some happier news. Let's just say that part of the company's contingency plan is being ramped up. I can't go into too much detail yet (NDAs and such) but I'll check in and see what I can and can't say.

Still have a job

Fri, 11 May 2007 04:20:13 GMT

One of the benefits of being an IT salaryman is that they like to make sure you can work 24/7. That means company provided Blackberrys and laptops. In case of emergency, you can work from your house.

I'd call the events of the last 3 months a big emergency.

I was putting in long days/evenings until they decided they wanted us in the office more than we were out of it. So, I went back to having a more reasonable schedule on the days I had to go into work. It was fine, if a bit expensive, but then the gasoline started drying up and it got real difficult to get in.

Since my employer is an oil company, they're in full out crisis mode right now. They can't afford to lose anyone, because it would be near impossible to fill the positions with anyone who do the job with the efficiency required. That gave me and my coworkers some leverage to pull of a minor coup.

They want us to come in 3 days a week? Fine. Let us set up a corporate van route that traverses the 50 miles back and forth between Tulsa and our site. The vans run diesel (relatively cheap and in full supply), and we can rotate drivers. Amazingly, they agreed pretty quickly. We found a couple of people that had the right commercial licenses, and voila instant shuttle. Too bad they couldn't have done this a few years ago, but a few years ago we couldn't convincingly say do this or we quit.

So, it's a good thing I've still got a job, right? Well, except for the fact that who I work for makes me public enemy #1 right now. Some of my coworkers have found out the hard way it doesn't pay to advertise anymore. At best, you get a lot of angry questions about why weren't people warned and such. At worst, well let's just case they're still looking for the culprits, but my teammate should be able to go home from the hospital soon.

I don't know if I'll still have a job six months from now. I guess it all depends on how the world adjusts to things. My job, like my life, revolved around gasoline in ready abundance. Now that it's going away, my job like my life is in a flurry of confusion and adjustment. It's times like this that belief in a higher power comes in handy. I'd be one depressed lad if I couldn't hope it would all turn out for the best.

Corporate allotments

Wed, 09 May 2007 13:41:19 GMT

A lot has been said about rationing and when the government is going to step in and make sure that everyone gets the fuel they need. I have the feeling that you're not going to see that happen, at least at a consumer level. From the talk I've been hearing at work, the primary concern is making sure the trucking industry keeps going as long as possible. All other fuel usage is secondary at this point. Cars, vans, SUVs can rust as long as the people who transport supplies keep moving.

What's that mean for you and me? Well, as the supply of oil continues to drop, less gasoline is available. Many of you are already seeing that. However, the gas that is available is going to be found in one of two places. The stores that are directly owned by the oil companies are going to get first share. There's not a lot of those out there, though. The rest of the available auto fuel goes to the large chains. They pay the best, so they get the product. That doesn't mean every Circle K and 7-11 is going to have gas, however. Distance from a terminal tank farm is key. The further away from the terminals you get, the less likely you're going to have gas and the more expensive it will get. I'm lucky to live within 30 miles of four major terminal facilities, so I haven't been out of gas yet.

With all the gas going to the chains, the small mom and pop gas stations are basically hosed. There's a couple around my community that have already closed down, and more are sure to follow. It's the Wal-Mart effect. If you don't have the buying power, you can't afford to compete. In this case, if you don't have multiple stations, you don't even get to buy product. It's causing a lot of uproar, but the eagles in Contracts and Legal have already made sure the little guys can't fight us. It's amazing what you can squeeze into the fine print these days. If you thought the oil companies were screwing the consumers over, wait until the big store chains get a stranglehold on the market.

On the diesel front, it's a bit better. The fuel is still there, thanks to a smart move by the EPA to allow the refineries to make high-sulfur diesel again. That means the refineries can turn out diesel as fast as they can, and most are ramping up to full capacity. Where it used to be gasoline first, then diesel, it's reversed now. Most of the work will be getting as much diesel out of each barrel that they can without blowing past the old high sulfur limit. The older (pre-2007) trucks and equipment will be fine on that. The newer vehicles that were designed for low sulfur might see some supply shortages or be forced to run the high sulfur fuel and risk the damage. The higher sulfur means more environmental impact, but it's obvious we've got more pressing concerns than pollution at this point.

In short, as long as the diesel flows the government will probably not step in. Forcing any sort of gasoline rationing on the consumers is only going to make the unrest worsen. However, as soon as diesel starts drying up, you can bet they'll be there to make sure as much of the trucking infrastructure stays intact as they can. Just like with the gas, the big companies with buying power will get the fuel, and the little guys get the scraps. That means more small companies will go under, more unemployment, and more depression in the economy.

I don't know about you, but I feel like a little minnow in a pond full of bass. Getting the information I get just makes me a minnow that knows too much for his own good. I can't do anything to change it. All I can do is keep reporting and hope that the information helps you all plan and prepare. Of course, if you haven't starting changing your life by this point, you're coming up to the starting line after the race has already started.

Nigerian production disruption

Tue, 08 May 2007 18:34:53 GMT

From Reuters (see original article here)

Nigerian rebels blew up three oil pipelines in the Niger Delta on Tuesday, forcing Italian oil giant Eni to halt production of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) feeding its Brass export terminal, a source at Eni said.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which has now shut down more than a quarter of Nigerian oil output, vowed to carry out more attacks in the world's eighth-largest crude exporter, where about 700,000 bpd were already being lost before the latest attacks.

"If those two pipelines have been blown up then there is zero production. They are the only two pipelines that carry all our production," said an Eni source, asking not to be named.

The source spoke after Eni's head office in Italy said the company had suspended production at its Akri and Oshi oilfields after sabotage of the Ogoda-Brass and Tebidaba-Brass pipelines.

Eni said it had already started repairing the pipelines, but did not specify the volume of oil production lost. The Brass terminal is capable of exporting 200,000 bpd but the Eni source said the company's current quota was 150,000 bpd.

"There is no activity whatsoever, everything has been stopped at the terminal and production at the fields has been halted," a shipping agent with Hull Blyth told Reuters by telephone from offices close to the terminal.

The agent said a crude oil tanker had been slated to load on Wednesday, but that it may now be delayed.

Nigeria's output capacity is roughly 3 million bpd.

The MEND, which demands local control of oil wealth in the impoverished delta, carried out a string of attacks in Feb. 2006 that reduced Nigerian output by 600,000 bpd. Militancy and crime flourish in the delta, a maze of creeks and mangrove swamps where many impoverished residents resent the oil industry because it has brought them few benefits.

The MEND, along with other armed groups in the delta, have stepped up attacks since Nigeria staged elections last April that were widely condemned as fraudulent.

The group's spokesman, who uses the pseudonym Jomo Gbomo, has said the MEND wanted to make it clear it had no faith in Yar'Adua or his deputy, Goodluck Jonathan, who is the outgoing governor of Bayelsa State in the heart of the delta.

"We intend to destroy more pipes than we have destroyed in the last year," Gbomo said in an e-mail.

The attacks on the pipelines come after Chevron was forced to shut down a 42,000 bpd production facility because of a protest by villagers armed with sticks and machetes.

Chevron said on Tuesday it had not yet restored the output and was in talks with the local community to resolve the matter.

META: This is a modification of a real news article as part of the story ongoing at worldwithoutoil and as such is a work of fiction. Sorry for the disclaimer, but you never know who might quote you these days.

Are you on the Netizen Hero list?

Tue, 08 May 2007 12:47:18 GMT

If you aren't, you should be. Knowledge is useless if you don't share. If I can go out on a limb and post, so can you.

Anyway, people who know me know what my favorite TV show is. After seeing fallingintosin's bumper stickers from a while back, I was inspired to make one of my own. I haven't printed it out yet, since I haven't had a chance to get stickers or ink for my printer.

Feel free to use and reuse this image as you see fit. Again, the quote is modified from both fallingintosin's sticker and a quote from "Heroes". I may come up with more later if the mood strikes me again. There's something about artistic impression that takes the edge off of the crisis mode we've all been in the last couple of months.

Behind the lines

Tue, 08 May 2007 04:05:58 GMT

Well, that meeting could have went better. My company wants us to keep our mouths shut about what's going on behind the scenes. No talking to reporters, no radio interviews, and -no blogging-. As you might have noticed, I'm real good at following orders. Looks like I'll have to keep my WWO work on the hush hush if I want to keep feeding you all good bits of information.

So, I bet some are wondering why on earth do I work for one of "the bad guys"? This area of the country was built on oil. My hometown used to be considered the oil capitol of the world. To me, an oil company is a corporation, no more and no less. Corporations exist to make money, and to keep making more money than they did the year before. An oil company is no more evil than an airline, a bank, or a chain restaurant. They all exist to take your money and give you as little back as they can get away with and keep you coming back for more.

It's easy to blame big oil for the mess we've gotten ourselves into. They got us addicted to oil in the first place, right? Just like the tobacco industry, we've been suckered into a lifestyle that's going to harm us later. We should be angry, shouldn't we?

I don't believe it's as cut and dried as all that. Sure, big oil has us all by the hairs. The world oil market has big oil by the hairs though. The black lifeblood that sustains our culture is found in mass quantities on the other side of the world in the possession of cultures that see us as annoying at best. Like I said before, the oil companies are just as dependent on foreign crude as we the people are. It's a big nasty web of want and need, and no one company or person dug this hole on their own. If we had only thought about it sooner and realized that the gas we take for granted would one day be gone. We kept feeding the corporations, and they kept coming up with new ways to make sure we kept giving them money. We could have stopped...should have stopped. But we didn't, they didn't. Now look where we are...

So, is the gag order my company laid down uncalled for? Not in their eyes. They have to protect the business. That's what CEOs and management are paid to do. I'll do my best to respect it, but I won't quit writing here. I owe it to you guys to let you know what I can when I can. I know one thing, though. They aren't going to convince me to keep using up fuel. We've got a carpool going to reduce the costs, but I won't be suckered into coming to work when I don't need to again. The gas I've got in my tank has got to last me. It might be all I get for a while.

Remember when...

Mon, 07 May 2007 17:21:21 GMT

this was a fear and not a reality?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/07/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm

Nothing like a little nostalgia, with gas creeping upwards towards $5 now. All you lucky folks driving diesels seem to have it good right now, though. Your fuel cost actually dropped this week (what did I tell you?). Too bad it's virtually impossible to convert a car from gasoline to diesel, or I'd be investing in it. Howewer, there may be some other alternatives that can be looked into. Anyone had any luck with alcohol distilling?

*yawn*...stupid power outages. Messed up my sleep cycle by not having any lights this morning. Of course they blame it on the storms we had last night. My tinfoil hat tells me that they probably took the chance to power part of the grid down.

Anyway, we're supposed to all go into the office again for an important meeting. Rumor has it the company has freaked out about the WWO site and its supposed "fear-mongering". That could spell trouble for me, but I've made sure not to post anything from my work PC. My little bit about the refineries last week wasn't exactly public knowledge, but it wasn't confidential either. Any good reporter asking questions to a trucking company could've figured that one out.

I'll make sure to post up more after that meeting. It looks like there might be a bit of a showdown coming up soon between my two worlds. Given the choice, which side would you pick? The answer should be obvious by now.

I really really hate it when I'm right

Sun, 06 May 2007 21:29:46 GMT

I got called back into the office last week after I posted my blog. My boss received word from on high that the situation had stabilized. Everyone who was telecommuting needed to be there at least 3 days a week. So I went in. Almost everyone did. Those of us who were a long way off even made the trip. That sucked, having to spend more money on gas, but it was nice to see people again. I missed that.

Friday's are supposed to be great, right?

You ever get told one thing to get you to do something and then find out it was a trick?

Well, by now you already know the situation is anything but stable, and the oil companies are scrambling to figure out two things. One, they want to keep the gas flowing into your tanks, regardless of price. Two, they want to make sure that whatever crude is available comes to them. I don't think it's any sort of industry secret, but you can assume that they're going to do whatever it takes to ensure their business model doesn't collapse. Expect to see them take "the high road" by promising to support agriculture and vital transportation. Why do you think diesel prices dropped this week when everything else went higher? They don't want to anger their large customers.

That's why they wanted us back in the office. I'm now front lines in the PR trenches, assuring the companies that pay us well that they won't see any problems while making arrangements to cut off the little guys. An old saying is that everyone watches their own, and corporations make sure to scratch each others back if the money is going to get disrupted.

I might get in deep trouble, but I can tell you that some refineries are increasing their output of diesel while cutting back on gasoline. They want -you- to feel the burn so they don't lose so much money. They don't care if Dick and Jane can't get to the store. But if Wal-Mart can't buy the millions of gallons it takes to keep them running, that's a major dent in the oil barons' pocket. So, while the food supply lines may still be going strong, it's going to get much much harder to get to the store.

I told that to my neighbors last night at our meeting. They looked shocked, but admitted it made sense. Looks like the doubt is gone now. Our food bank is getting restocked, and we're looking at expanding our storage area to allow for more cover time in case of a disruption. We also moved into the next phase of reuse instead of disposal. The compost piles are being built, and supplies are being purchased so that as little that can be wasted is being wasted. I noticed one of my neighbors reading a book about Native Americans in our area and how they used as much of the buffalo and deer that they killed as they could. We're going to need that kind of thinking soon. We can't afford to throw away anything that might be useful.

The denial is starting to fade into a feeling of fear. That's good, I guess, because we can take that energy and put it into getting ready for what the next couple of months might bring. Part of me hoped that it wouldn't come down to this, but it looks like it's going to get rough. I just hope my community is really ready to do what it takes.

Crisis of faith community

Sun, 06 May 2007 04:39:02 GMT

First off...yay that the Secretary of State is gone again! Way to commit career suicide there buddy, just glad you didn't get to take mine with you.

Now for the fun part. This week has really sucked. My neighborhood is beginning to seriously question whether our reactions were appropriate. The world hasn't degenerated into an apocalyptic nightmare yet, so now the masses are thinking we can keep on doing what we did before. The food store is still being utilized, but many people are starting to shop on their own again. People are even driving for the sheer fun of it.

My community is getting lazy again. Some say that we might have assumed the worst, but that everything is going to be ok. We can still drive like we used to, we just have to make financial adjustments like we did when gas broke $2. I can't get them to understand that it could get a lot worse quickly, and it's better to stay prepared than to lapse back into complacency.

Time will tell, I guess. The worst part of all this is I'm beginning to doubt my faith in the oil crush. What if it's not the end of civilization? What if all the rioting and planning and worrying is for absolutely nothing? Is it worse to panic and cause trouble for no reason, or worse to be caught unprepared?

And is it really bad of me to want the gas prices to climb again so that I don't have to be wrong?

Withdrawal symptoms

Fri, 04 May 2007 13:04:32 GMT

Things I miss now that I can't drive around like I used to:

Going to another city and visiting tourist sites (zoos, museums, etc.)
Visiting my parents and even my inlaws
Shopping for the fun of it, instead of for survival
Most frivolous things

A lot of my time when I'm not working is now spent helping out my neighbors. I'm not specifically skilled in any thing (I'm not a plumber or electrician), but people are always glad to have a spare set of hands to help out. I've been fixing things at some of our older folks houses as well as assisting others with their gardens. What goes around comes around as well. Those that can have been helping my family out as well.

I can't help but feel more...I dunno...productive, I guess. I'm not just a consumer of resources anymore. The travel restriction put a quick end to that. Now I'm a part of a population preparing for things to get a lot worse than they already are. Right now we can still make supply runs, but what happens when there's no gas (or supplies) any more? That's the major focus in my neighborhood right now. Making sure we can take care of ourselves when we are cut off.

Enough of that doom and gloom now. Like the podcast last week said, you have to find things that uplift you. Aside from the feeling of usefulness I'm having, I also feel much more connected to the people I live close to. Before this all happened, I'd get up in the morning, go to work, come home, go out or stay in. I never really made any effort to connect with my neighbors, and the feeling was mutual. We all had lives many miles away, so there just wasn't time to talk. Actually, we just never made the time. Now that it's been over a month since the crisis started, I'm realizing what I missed.

In planning the whole "food store" idea, I really got to know the people whose land is near mine. There's young and old, married and single, retirees and newly graduate college folks. People I've lived next to for years and never said more than "hello" to. People who are now depending on each other to weather through a storm. It's a shame it took a tragedy to get us to actually connect when we'd see each other every day. It really makes me wish I could go back and make those relationships sooner...hindsight's 20/20, right?

So, kids, the moral of today's story: Look around you and appreciate what you have right there. Don't let happiness be too far from you, otherwise one day you might not be able to get to it :)

Standing on the edge

Thu, 03 May 2007 15:07:02 GMT

Protests? "Parking lots"? Vandalism?!?

My company closed its offices today due to "ongoing safety concerns". One of my coworkers said they kept receiving multiple bomb threats, and a couple of suspicious packages were found. One actually had some firecrackers in it, with a note saying it was a warning shot. He said that was the final straw, and until further notice we're all supposed to work at home. He also said it was recommended we "keep a low profile". I think they just want to see if it was an inside job or not.

Let me go on record saying this is almost as unhelpful as the Secretary's speech last week. Who do you think your harming by disrupting gas stations, burning cars, and threatening businesses? It isn't the ones responsible for this, that's for sure (if there's even anyone to really blame but ourselves). You're just hurting your neighbors, the ones trying to keep this world on its wheels when all the bolts have flown loose. Put that energy in something useful, like what my community is doing.

It's obvious this isn't going to get better, so my neighbors and I have started a food bank of sorts. Everyone chips in either money or garden output. With the money we take a vehicle and load up on groceries (the basics...no lobster here, just bread, milk, meat, and any veggies we can't grow). We then store it and dole it out based on input. You get what you put in. It eliminates the need for multiple trips to the store, and it puts us all on a more controlled food situation. The stores still have stuff, if you're willing to pay for it. I'm actually giving some of my allowance to a family here who can't afford as much. It's amazing how much compassion a crisis can bring out.

We've also instituted a strict neighborhood guard. We live on the outskirts of town, so it's easy for us to see who's coming and going. 24 hours a day we have people stationed at the entrances to the neighborhood. If you don't have a reason to be here, you don't get in. We want it understood that this is a safe zone...any troublemakers will be dealt with. Yeah, sounds harsh, doesn't it? We learned quick after some jerks tried to siphon gas and it took the cops an hour to get here. The criminals got away, and we realized that we would have to look after ourselves. Welcome to the Wild West, circa 2007. The government isn't going to help you, the corporations aren't going to help you. You have to take care of yourselves now.

I'll blog more later. Just remember that violence and anger aren't going to solve anything. Find solutions, don't cause more problems.

A really REALLY BAD IDEA

Thu, 03 May 2007 03:32:13 GMT

So much for my good mood.

http://wwotext.blogspot.com/2007/05/fw-new-sectretary-of-state.html

Mr. Secretary, with all due respect, you are a fool (I'd elaborate, but this is a family friendly site). So, this is supposed to help us how exactly?

Let me explain this to those who don't know. There's two major parts to the oil industry. You have the exploration and production side, also known as upstream. These are the guys who lease land, drill holes, and suck the oil out. Their product is crude oil, and their customers are the refineries. The refineries, terminals, and stores make up what's called downstream. They buy crude from various upstream providers, then make and distribute all the goodies that we get from crude.

I work on the downstream side of things. We consume oil just like you guys do. The only difference is we consume crude and turn out gasoline, kerosene, diesel, wax, lubricants, and plastic. Cutting off our ability to get crude is a death sentence. Once the downstream petroleum industry falls apart, you might as well kiss this modern world goodbye.

Congratulations. You probably just put me and a bunch of other people out of a job, and doomed the United States to a reversal of civilization not seen since the fall of Rome. The panic and disruption this is going to cause is going to make 9/11 look like a minor rainstorm, and all because you had to flex your muscles.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have a disaster to prepare for.

Aw crud...

Wed, 02 May 2007 14:13:39 GMT

Can't post much right now. Phone is ringing off the hook. Last week things were quieter, but the jump in gas prices as well as the continued talk of supply shortage has got people freaked out again. They're realizing that they can't just sit back and weather this price surge out, so they're buying up all they can. I'm glad my family doesn't have to drive much with me working from home. Some areas of the state are reporting hour long waits at the pump.

On the work side, stations all over the area are doubling and tripling their requests, and the drivers can barely keep up with the loads. There's talk that some of the smaller trucking companies may be running into budget problems due to the diesel price increase (just like I predicted last week). The terminals are starting to feel the crush too. They're turning away some trucks now because there just isn't the gas in the tanks to give them. I'm constantly getting requests to lock accounts or limit their allocation of fuel they can actually load.

You'd think the oil companies would be loving the price hike. Think again. It's becoming a full blown nightmare. I'm working 12 hours a day now (can't really tell them I'm out of the office, you know?).

Will post some more later this evening when I can. I do have some non-work good news to share, including some great ideas my neighbors and I came up with.

The sun is still shining, so far

Wed, 02 May 2007 01:39:43 GMT

Gas prices aren't coming down anytime soon, it appears. At least work was kind enough to let me start telecommuting. That'll cut down on some of the expense. 100 miles/30mpg means I burn almost 4 gallons a day if I go back and forth to the office. That's $17 a day if you're keeping score. It adds up fast.

One week in to the oil shock and a sort of uneasy routine has set in. After an initial run on the pumps, people are calming down and realizing that $4 gas is here to stay. Less people are buying gas now, mostly those who can't afford it. There's still the idiots out there who can't seem to part with their SUVs, but those are becoming less and less common. That's a good thing, I guess, since there's less gas to go around. However, people seem to be adjusting somewhat.

Like I said before, I work for an oil company. I help manage the software for the truck terminals (or tank farms), and lately I've seen something really disturbing. There are fewer trucks coming to get gas. I called one of the terminal operators and asked what was going on. He said it was the lowering demand for it by consumers. People are starting to explore other options for getting to work like carpooling and public transit, he said. In fact, he and a couple of his coworkers had started taking turns driving to work. Gas stations aren't turning over their inventories like they were.

So, less gas is being sold. That means people aren't driving as much. They won't be spending money at our gas stations, or many other places. I remember the last little gas spike and how it affected the economy. When retail slumps, people get laid off. That means even less money moving around. That happened when gas went up fifty cents. It's going to be a lot worse now.

I'm worrying less about the flow of necessities, as long as diesel seems to be keeping stable. If that spikes too...well, let's just say it'll get bad fast. Without diesel, the supply chain will break even further. The trucks that ship gasoline may not run as often or at all. Right now, it's just the "normal" drivers that are feeling the burn, and they seem to be attempting to adjust.

Of course, I can't order a pizza anymore. Most of the drivers in town quit. It was just too expensive. Guess I'll need to learn to make my own.

I can't sleep.

Tue, 01 May 2007 04:17:42 GMT

When I woke up this morning (April 30 2007), I didn't notice anything different. I got up, showered, got dressed, and had breakfast. At 6am I got in my car and started on my 50 mile commute to work. I needed gas, so I headed over to my local fill up.

That's when I saw it. $4 a gallon for the 'cheap' stuff. All I could think was "what the heck?". Ok, maybe not exactly like that, but you get the point.

I filled up, thankful it was still early. The world must not have noticed yet, so I got in and got out with only a dent in my wallet to show for it. 50 miles later, I realized the world had noticed. It was all over the news. Gas prices have skyrocketed, and no clear reason why. People in some cities were lining up to get their tanks full before tomorrow and another increase. The usual talk of doom and gloom bounced back and forth between neatly dressed anchors and the "experts" they brought in. What a shame the real experts weren't there.

Walking past the guard desk and the HD plasma screen showing the news, I got in the elevator. My last moment of peace ended with a ding, and as the doors opened I knew it was bad. My coworkers were all scrambling, answering phone calls and typing frantically at their PCs.

As I sat down, I tried to ignore the mad flashing light on my phone. My mind was filled a single thought.

"How am I going to afford to keep driving 100 miles every day? Even with my 30mpg car, it's still $350 a month."

It wasn't until just now that I started to think about groceries, medicine, and all that other good stuff that's shipped by trucks. All that stuff that's going to get more expensive, if it even gets here at all. If this lasts longer than a week, there will be major repercussions. I should know. Working with trucks is what I do for a living, and I'm already seeing the effects.

I'm one of a handful of folks that helps maintain the computer systems that keeps a very vital resource moving. That's why I only had time for one thought, because my boss was already on me for status updates. I quickly checked my voice mails. The stores are demanding more product, and the trucks are working double time to ship it. Inventories at the terminals are being strictly controlled to prevent outages and many folks are getting mad. I started making return calls. The gas trucks weren't going to wait.

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention...I work for a company in the petroleum industry. Just like I told my friends, family, etc this morning, I didn't have a clue either. I'm just a peon, blown around by the same ill winds as everyone else. No special treatment or discounts here. Not that it would matter. 75% or more of gas price is the oil price anyway. As long as the traders keep buying and running the price up, we're all at it's mercy.

So, that's keeping me up tonight. I'm wondering how this is going to affect my job, my family, my life. We're going shopping tomorrow to stock up on some essentials. Get as much as we can so we don't have to make too many trips. I refuse to go into panic mode yet. No stocking up on tons of water or any of that. Mostly just cutting corners here and there to make the most of it. I'm also going to talk to my boss and see if I can start telecommuting. Every little bit helps, I guess.

Maybe this will blow over. If you believe the 8 to Save the Country, though, it won't. I'd like to think we can adjust quickly without too much disruption. Still, the possibility is there that this the worst case scenario. Given my occupation, that means I'm just off of center of the storm...the strongest part.